In which Mini listens to too much radio and
thinks about apocalypses
Talking on the
radio recently, Neil Gaiman recounts how his daughter Holly, at 4 years old, delighted
in scary stories. She would come home, climb on his lap and dictate hair-raisingly
creepy tales to him - which ended up
being the inspiration behind his book Coraline. “That was what she loved,”
said Neil of the terrifying stories. Neil remembers going to a bookshop in
Uckfield and saying “What have you got in the way of good horror for four year
olds?” and discovering that this thing didn’t exist yet. He says “I think it’s
a wonderful think to be in control of our fear. We like scary stories for the
same reason that we like going on rides at funfairs…the fictional fear is the
joy of being in control… You can always put the book down.”
It’s not just
children who delight in scary stories – grown ups do too.
Maybe that’s a
reason people have always imagined they’re living in the End Times, that they
are the last people at the end of the world. The story of Apocalypse is
an old one, one of the oldest stories humans tell. An Assyrian clay tablet
dating to around 2800 B.C. bears the inscription: “Our Earth is degenerate in
these later days; there are signs that the world is speedily coming to an end;
bribery and corruption are common; children no longer obey their parents; every
man wants to write a book and the end of the world is evidently approaching.” The Apocalyse Story might be perennially popular, perhaps, because the predicament is OUT of our control, and is going to be visited upon everybody by some unkind superpower. In olden times it was usually a cataclysmic
intervention of God that was going to happen, but by the time I was a child it was going to be nuclear
war that ended everything; see Raymond Briggs’s When the Wind Blows.
And now the End Times
is our Ongoing Planetary Climate Emergency.
In his Radio 4 series ‘Tipping
Points’ , Justin Rowlatt addresses the people of 2122, 100 years on: What
will their lives be like? What will they think of us? What would we like to say
to them? What stories will they tell about us and what we were up to 100 years
ago? “Tomorrow’s generations will have a lot to say about what we do now and
the choices we make.”
And in a story you
can imagine future Earthlings; it could be very useful to us now to imagine
what future Earthlings will say about us..
The Arctic and the Amazon
rainforest – are critical planetary regulators that drive the weather and
climate of our planet. And they’re both teetering on tipping points, both about
to slide (or maybe already sliding) into a new state – which will be, possibly: a warming ice-free Arctic in summer; and, possibly, eventually, savannah where most rainforest used to be. And this will
mean: a stalled meandering Polar Jet Stream (the air current that usually circles the Arctic) bringing extreme blocked weather events – heat or
flooding; and loss of the most biodiverse region on earth and all that breathing
out of clouds and rivers in the sky that the rainforest does. A warm Arctic
means loss of the temperature differences between poles and equator on land and
sea which will disrupt ocean circulation. And all these changes will be too
fast for wild animals in earth and sea to adapt. Our present CO2 levels are around 420 ppm. To
find a planet like this you have to go back in your time machine to 3 million
years ago: then, Earth’s climate was 3 degrees warmer, and even warmer at the
poles, with no Greenland ice sheet and much higher sea levels: this is the
equilibrium the Earth will aim for with our present CO2 levels.
If a
palaeontologist in the far future – let’s say in 65 million years time, the
distance we are from the dinosaurs – was to look at what happened between
10,000 years ago and now in the fossil record, they’d probably conclude, if
they didn’t know better, that there’d been a mass extinction event. One moment,
(10, 000 years ago) 96% of mammals on earth are all sorts of diverse wild
fauna, and then, suddenly, they nearly disappear (becoming 4% of all mammals
today) and the rest - 96% of mammals - are suddenly humans and their
domesticated animals. Palaeontologists of the future would think a mass extinction had already
taken place – something had happened to make all that wildlife disappear, and a ‘disaster taxa’ of animals that can live
anywhere and aren’t fussy (humans and their animals) had spread everywhere, a
bit like how lystrosauruses colonized the planet after the super-disastrous
end-Permian mass extinction .
And future
Earthlings are already with us: what do our children think about what Earth’s grown-ups are doing
now to tackle climate change, and the double threats of global warming and biodiversity
loss?
Although he’s been
on Friday for Future marches, I didn’t think my 15 year old son Herbie would want
to talk about the Climate Emergency – it could be a bleak outlook ahead for young people.
But when I ask him, his answer is surprising.
Herbie says: “A
mammal species usually lasts a few million years. So we could say the human
species could be destined to last a million years at the bare minimum. Which
means, if we don’t make ourselves extinct – (which it is very unlikely for us
to do, even if we make the Earth very difficult to live on) – we’re not at the
end, we’re at the very start of the whole human race. We’ve got 800 000 years
at least ahead of us.”
There could be a
shift in perspective of where we are in the story – maybe we’re at the
beginning rather than the end. Which makes what we do now even more important.
One thing I learned
from researching and making my latest book, The Greatest Show on Earth, is this:
It’s amazing and terrifying to know that, in Earth’s
history, complex animal life has occasionally been REALLY close to being
snuffed out (the worst ever was 252 million years ago). The Earth has sometimes
been a TERRIBLE place to live in the past (possibly even trying to get rid of
life, you could suspect…): there have been huge volcanic lava outpourings,
there have been tremendous freezes, there have been times when the ocean became
anoxic and hostile to life.
About 20 thousand years ago a cold world that swung erratically in and out of
ice-ages started to thaw and turn into the gentle friendly stable climate of
the Holocene where us modern humans have made our homes, and that benevolent
climate – not too warm or too cold – is what we – and everyone else on the
planet – is used to. And it’s been a lucky time: no big asteroid strikes, no
massive lava outpourings.
But now we realise
that just one animal, us, is controlling the whole planet…but it’s not in our
control. And if certain tipping points get triggered, it will roll into a new
climate mode, and there will be nothing we can do to push it back to something
like the dear old friendly Holocene.
We are living in a critical moment for our planet.
And also in making the Greatest Show I discovered – we are only half way through the
life of our Earth and Sun – there’s a whopping 500 million years left for
animal life of all sorts – for “endless forms most
beautiful and most wonderful” to evolve . The Tape Measure of Time which is unrolled in my book by Anton, Anatole and Annette the Ant Time Team, is at a scale of one centimetre to a million years. When you think that all of Homo Sapiens’s business is contained in
the last three millimetres of the last one centimetre on the Tape Measure of Time, and we feel that
even those few hundred thousand years is a long long time, imagine the vast
time distances that stretch before us. All the Holocene is contained in the
last tenth of a millimetre of the Tape Measure of Time; just rolling out
another centimetre takes us a million years into the future – and there’s a
possible 5 or 6 metres of time still to come.
Looking into the
future is so difficult: even looking forward 50 years is hard.
Can we go through
the Crystal Ball: what COULD the future be? Can we get in an imaginary time
machine and travel to a thousand years in the future?.
The secret special
fantastic superpower of humans is our crazy overactive imaginations. And those
imaginations feed on the power of story: story lets us share collective
imaginary ideas like nations, money, gods, the past and the future.
With stories and
empathy we can imagine the far future, and what that
might be like.
Can we imagine Earth
is 1000 years time? 10,000 years time? 100, 000 years time? What could a planet
where humans and the rest of nature live in balance be like? How much space
would each need?
Then we can start
working out what we have to do to get there.
So here it is:
The Story We Can’t
Tell Our Children.
Here’s how the
story starts:
But this story has a sad ending: the wild animals disappear, and Earth ends up a bit inhospitable. Actually I can't tell you this story. It's just too sad.
So I'll tell you a story that was once in my book, Space Dog, about a furry planet.
Imagining our
possible futures is useful. It can help us work out what’s important. Imagining
what future people will say about us who are on Earth now is useful. Having an
imagined conversation across time with future beings could be useful, to
galvanise ourselves into making changes now.
So back to the APOCALYPSE: The original word in Greek —
apokalypsis — means an unveiling, a revelation. An apocalypse helps us see something
that was hidden before.
Maybe our story can
have a different ending.
So here it is: The
Story We Might Wish our Children will tell:
And this story has many possible happy endings. Here's just one.
And then the people
of Earth decided they wanted to make sacrifices right now so they could give their
planet a good future: they asked their governments to put a price on carbon dioxide
and methane so it was expensive to pollute Earth’s atmosphere with them. They stopped
eating meat – except for special treats – so they could give back half of Earth’s
land surface to nature, and everything they planned and made from then on, was
planned to give more habitat to wildlife. And it took a long time, and it wasn't easy, but people and planet eventually at
long last were in balance. And endless forms most wondrous continued to evolve.
And how on Earth
do we get to the happy ending?
Well, all you story-makers, that’s another story….
Some links:
The Climate Tipping Points by Justin Rowlatt (Radio 4 broadcasts)
If Sketching Weakly Ruled The World A post from 2020 about climate action
CCLUK - working towards a price on carbon with dividend to all citizens
Mini’s latest book is The Greatest Show on Earth, published by Puffin.